Balancing CapEx reduction and network stability with stable routing–virtual topology capacity adjustment (SR–VTCA)

This paper investigates the merits of the SR–VTCA (stable routing–virtual topology capacity adjustment) approach as a mechanism to find a beneficial trade-off between network stability and reduction in capital expenditures (CapEx). These are two main objectives for the entities that own the optical infrastructure, such as network operators (NOs), and those also acting as Internet service providers (ISPs). The SR–VTCA scheme is a novel approach to adapt transparent optical networks to time-varying traffic by adjusting the number of lightpaths between node pairs, while keeping the IP routing unchanged. Lightpath bundling (LB) and anycast (AS) switching are combined in SR–VTCA operation to advertise lightpath additions/removals to the IP layer as mere adjustments (increments or decrements) in the capacity, allowing to keep the IP routing stable, and thus, simplifying control plane operations. On the contrary, a fully-reconfigurable (FR) network design, where IP routing can be also modified, would increase the burden in the control plane, but at a higher CapEx reduction, since the optical infrastructure is used more efficiently. In this work, we investigate the CapEx overprovision introduced by SR–VTCA with respect to a FR scheme. In order to do this, SR–VTCA planning problem is first modeled as a MILP formulation. A heuristic procedure based on traffic domination is then proposed to solve large instances of the problem. Exhaustive experiments are conducted comparing the SR–VTCA solutions obtained by the aforementioned MILP and heuristic proposal with solutions found by other optimization methods presented in the literature to solve the FR planning problem. Finally, the results show that SR–VTCA can achieve similar results to the FR case in terms of CapEx reduction, while a huge number of IP reroutings are saved by maintaining IP stability. Thus, SR–VTCA provides an advantageous balance between CapEx overprovisioning and the control plane overhead associated with IP rerouting.     

On forecasting large and infrequent snow avalanches

Snow avalanches that threaten a highway or a residential area are often large avalanches that have a return period > 1 year. Danger assessment strongly relies on precipitation data since these avalanches are typically triggered by major snow storms. Given the extensive protection work that is in place in the European Alps, the avalanche control service (also called avalanche commission) responsible for danger assessment will usually monitor the avalanche situation throughout the winter, but only become active in case of a major snow fall. Related safety concepts describing the procedures and measures to be taken in a given danger situation are therefore often based on threshold values for new snow. By analysing the avalanche occurrence of a major avalanche path, we show that forecasting based on new snow amounts involves high uncertainty. Whereas the return period of an avalanche to, for example, the road was about 5 years, the return period for the corresponding new snow depth was substantially smaller, in our case slightly less than 2 years. Similar proportions were found for a number of other avalanche paths with different snow climate. The return period of the critical new snow depth was about 2–5 times smaller than the return period of the avalanche. This proportion is expected to increase with increasing return period. Hence, based on the return period of an avalanche path a first estimate for the critical new snow depth can be made. With a return period of the critical new snow depth of 1–2 years, avalanche prediction for individual avalanche path becomes very challenging since the false alarm ratio is expected to be high.     

Electric load forecasting by using dynamic neural network

Electrical energy is fundamental for the wellbeing and for the economic development of any country. However, all countries must ensure access to essential resources and ensure the continuity of its supply. Due to the non-storable nature of electrical energy, the amount of consumed active power should always be equal the produced active power just to avoid power system frequency deviation problem. In order to keep the relationship production–consumption relation in compliance with different standards and to secure profitable operations of power system, electric load consumption must be predicted and controlled instantaneously. Several statistical and classical techniques are proposed in the literature but unfortunately all these methods are not accurate in a satisfactory manner. In this paper, a dynamic neural network is used for the prediction of daily power consumption. The suitability and the performance of the proposed approach is illustrated and verified with simulations on load data collected from French Transmission System Operator (RTE) website. The obtained results show that the accuracy and the efficiency are improved comparatively to conventional methods widely used in this field of research.     

合理布置二期施工道路

文章阐述了拔贡水电站改扩建工程二期施工道路优化方案，合理布置，结合工程实际情况，经过验算，增加一个临时交通桥，顺利完成2012年洪水期的施工任务，并为顺利完成了二期施工导流围堰和二期基坑开挖创造了良好前提条件，取得较好的经济效率，节约工程投资和施工成本。     

基于起重、运输技术的新型交通体系的构建

目前对城市交通系统的能力要求越来越高,城市规划、土地、资金等的约束对城市交通体系的建设影响较大。本文提出了基于现代起重、运输技术的新型交通体系的构建理念,设计了针对车辆掉头、紧急事件处理、潮汐交通等方面的专用设备,有效提升了交通系统的通行能力。     

A methodology for predicting regional freight traffic in developing countries

The prime concern of transportation planners in developing countries is how to collect and transfer data into models as simple and as effective as possible and obtain solutions in the shortest time.

In this study, a methodology which utilizes multivariate statistical analysis techniques for travel estimation is presented. The two simple and convenient techniques namely Cluster Analysis and Principal Component Analysis, are used for the evaluation of available data. The traffic demand is expressed as a function of principal components which are determined independently as a small set of variables to represent total system variability. A stepwise regression analysis is carried out to derive the traffic demand‐principal component relationship. The proposed methodology is then applied to Southeastern Anatolia Regional Development Project in Turkey.     

Energy sector of the Russian Far East: Current status and scenarios for the future

This article describes the Russian Far East's energy sector, stressing its limited energy exports, and use of separate electricity and heating grids to geographically dispersed population centers with various supply patterns distributed across a vast territory. One key strategic trend has been to strengthen the potential of the region as an energy supplier for the countries of Northeast Asia. This underlies the framework used to develop three energy scenarios of the Russian Far East's energy future through 2030: Reference, National Alternative and Regional Alternative. While the Regional Alternative case has much greater total costs for implementation, yields almost the same amount of emissions as the BAU case, and requires greater governmental efforts to bring it to reality, it looks preferable for the RFE as a whole because it has a well-balanced primary energy consumption mix, lower energy and ecology/GDP indices, and a lower fraction of energy imports; offers greater diversity of energy supply; and provides better local energy service. The authors would like to thank Boris Saneev, Alexander Sokolov, Alexander Izhbuldin from the Institute of Energy Systems, Irkutsk; Julia Savelieva from Far Eastern Coal Research; and Alla Filatova from Far Eastern Power Engineering Institute for providing technical information, and expertise.     

Experience-based mitigation of age-related performance declines: Evidence from air traffic control.

[Correction Notice: An erratum for this article was reported in Vol 15(2) of Journal of Experimental Psychology: Applied (see record 2009-09189-003). In the article, the URL published for the supplemental material was incorrect. The correct URL is http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/a0014947.supp] Previous research has found age-related deficits in a variety of cognitive processes. However, some studies have demonstrated age-related sparing on tasks where individuals have substantial experience, often attained over many decades. Here, the authors examined whether decades of experience in a fast-paced demanding profession, air traffic control (ATC), would enable older controllers to perform at high levels of proficiency. The authors also investigated whether older controllers would show diminished age-related decrements on domain-relevant cognitive abilities. Both young and old controllers and noncontrollers performed a battery of cognitive and ATC tasks. Results indicate that although high levels of experience can reduce the magnitude of age-related decline on the component processes that underlie complex task performance, this sparing is limited in scope. More important, however, the authors observed experience-based sparing on simulated ATC tasks, with the sparing being most evident on the more complex air traffic control tasks. These results suggest that given substantial experience, older adults may be quite capable of performing at high levels of proficiency on fast-paced demanding real-world tasks. The implications of these findings for global skilled labor shortages are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved)     

Managing emergencies and abnormal situations in air traffic control (part II): Teamwork strategies

Team performance has been studied in many safety-critical organizations including aviation, nuclear power plant, offshore oil platforms and health organizations. This study looks into teamwork strategies that air traffic controllers employ to manage emergencies and abnormal situations. Two field studies were carried out in the form of observations of simulator training in emergency and unusual scenarios of novices and experienced controllers. Teamwork strategies covered aspects of team orientation and coordination, information exchange, change management and error handling. Several performance metrics were used to rate the efficiency of teamwork and test the construct validity of a prototype model of teamwork. This is a companion study to an earlier investigation of taskwork strategies in the same field (part I) and contributes to the development of a generic model for Taskwork and Teamwork strategies in Emergencies in Air traffic Management (T²EAM). Suggestions are made on how to use T²EAM to develop training programs, assess team performance and improve mishap investigations.     

变动单位线与纳西瞬时单位线在洪水预报中的应用

针对洪水预报中采用不同的地面汇流方式影响预报精度的问题,将变动单位线与纳西瞬时单位线法分别应用于湖南省嘉禾子流域的地面汇流部分,采用遗传算法优选产汇流参数,并比较了两种方法的汇流结果.结果表明,采用变动单位线法的建模结果优于纳西瞬时单位线法的建模结果.